Methodology
An entry gets in only if a primary source states a measurable result that has already happened, the figure on this site matches that source word for word or number for number, and the entry carries both the date the fact refers to and the date we read the source. Forecasts, economic totals, vendor benchmarks and anything without a primary source stay out.
The five tests
- It happened. A trial reported, a device authorised, a system in operation, a prize awarded, a survey published. Not announced plans, not "could", not "will".
- Someone else measured it. The source is the journal, regulator, agency, or survey organisation, or the organisation's own primary release of a peer-reviewed result. A company claim about its own product is admitted only when the underlying result is peer-reviewed or certified by a third party, and the entry says which.
- The number is the source's number. Figures are copied as stated. Where a source gives a range, the range is given. Where we counted something ourselves, such as rows in a public list, the entry says so and gives the date of the count.
- It is dated twice. "As of" is the date the fact refers to. "Checked" is the date a human-directed pass read the source. Both are printed on every entry and in the downloads.
- It survives a recheck. Entries are rechecked; a dead link, a retraction, or a changed number means the entry is corrected or removed.
Left out on purpose
- Estimates of AI's effect on jobs, wages, productivity or GDP. The published ranges are wide and the methods disagree.
- Benchmark scores reported only by the company that built the model, unless graded by an independent body, as the IMO result was.
- Predictions, including the ones in the books this site links to. They are the argument; this is the record.
- Harms and failures are not denied by omission. This ledger is a record of measured results, and its scope is results. Readers looking for the costs of AI should look at the same primary sources, which often report both.
How pages are made
Pages are researched and drafted with AI assistance under human editorial direction at Melting Wax Studios. The research step is a search for primary sources; the check step is a read of each source page with the figure in hand; the write step may not introduce a number the source does not contain. The ledger lives in one data file that feeds every page and both downloads, so a page and a download cannot disagree.
Money
The site links to two books by Ray Kurzweil and to Audible memberships through Amazon Associates. Amazon pays a commission on qualifying purchases; the reader pays the same price either way. The books were chosen for their subject, and no entry in the ledger was selected, worded or omitted to help sell them.
Frequently Asked Questions
The organisation that produced the result: a peer-reviewed journal article or its official release, a regulator's own list, an operational agency's announcement, or a survey organisation's report. News coverage is used only to find the primary source, never as the source itself.
Because the measurements disagree and the horizon is long. The ledger records things that have already happened and been measured on their own terms. Economic totals attributed to AI are estimates with wide ranges, so they are excluded rather than picked to suit an argument.
Forecasts are opinions. The Kurzweil books linked on this site are the argument for the future; the ledger is the record of the past, and the two are kept apart so a reader can judge one against the other.
Send the entry id and a primary source through Melting Wax Studios. An entry that fails a recheck is removed, not softened, and the check date on every page shows when the last pass was made.